A summary of risk areas and scenario analyses 2012-2015

ISBN/ISSN: 978-91-7383-681-4

This report presents an overview and synthesis of the 14 scenario analyses conducted as part of Sweden national risk and capability assessment between 2012 and 2015.

The report presents a comprehensive overview of the different risks Sweden faces, which could have a serious impact on key Swedish national values of protection: human life and health, society’s functionality, economy and the environment, democracy, rule of law, and human rights and freedoms, and national sovereignty.

Where the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency has conducted a scenario analysis in relation to the risk area, the results of this are presented after the initial risk description. Each scenario has been analysed based on the capability of society to prevent and respond to the scenario in respect of its potential impact on Sweden’s national values of protection. Each analysis also includes a discussion related to the likelihood, sensitivity, and uncertainties pertaining to the scenario.

The results of the impact assessments from the scenario analyses and the most prominent examples of capabilities that need to be developed based on each scenario analysis are presented under the heading Overview of the analysed risks in Section 1 of the report. Section 1 concludes with a synthesis of key capabilities that need to be developed and which MSB wishes to draw special attention to based on all of the scenario analyses. Special attention has been drawn to four parts in particular:

1-The importance of working with individual risks based on an all-risk perspective;
2-The capability to maintain critical infrastructure;
3-The capability to manage information securely; and
4-The capability for co-ordinated action in the event of an incident.